A prolonged recession in Greece will surge defaults and bad loans. A negative impact is also expected on the secondary NPL market. European Commission and the IMF forecast a 10% contraction this year.
Greek banks still carry most of NPLs in their balance sheet.
Assuming new issuances of EUR4bn, a pick-up in outstanding T-bills raising the stock back to EUR12.5bn and a Covid-19 fiscal cost of EUR12bn, the state coffers could end 2020 with approximately EUR30bn, providing ample resources for weathering the crisis.